Truck tonnage rose 4.8% last month from a year earlier as carriers distanced themselves from winter’s freight disruptions, setting the stage for more growth amid a strengthening economy.
American Trucking Associations said last week its advanced seasonally adjusted index reached 129.1 in April, an improvement of 1.5% on a month-to-month basis. The April result was the best monthly year-over-year increase in 2014.
“Tonnage has been making solid progress after falling a total of 5.2% in December and January,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “April’s nice gain was better than the contraction in industrial production and the lackluster retail sales during the same month.”
ATA’s announcement was issued after recent economic reports that industrial production and housing, two key drivers of tonnage, have perked up. That brightened the economic picture that was dimmed after the dismal 0.1% increase in first-quarter gross domestic product reported April 30.
Costello told Transport Topics that last month’s housing market improvement, as well as a post-winter catch-up effect, helped tonnage last month.
Tonnage has risen 4% since January and has gained 2.9% this year.
Costello told TT he expected that full-year tonnage growth would be 4.5%. Sustained growth similar to the April percentage level would be required for the rest of the year to hit that target.
However, an industry analyst report wasn’t as upbeat.
“The challenging weather in the first quarter created a widespread hope that the economy would broadly accelerate once the snow melted and pent-up demand was released,” Stifel Nicolaus analyst John Larkin said in an investor note.
“General freight volumes are reflective of the mediocre economic growth,” his report said. “While some pockets of economic growth exist [e.g. Texas, North Dakota, Silicon Valley], the average American is still struggling to make ends meet. Their struggles are reflected in the weak sales posted by big-box retailers, of late.”
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